Destined for War

This section introduces Thucydides’s Trap, a historical pattern where a rising power challenges a ruling one, often leading to conflict. Currently, China's rapid ascent threatens the United States' long-standing dominance, creating a potential collision course. Although many historical cases resulted in war, the author argues that conflict is not inevitable, provided both nations take difficult steps to prevent it. Leaders' aspirations for national greatness intensify this structural stress.

China's unprecedented growth is transforming the global balance of power, moving beyond mere addition to the existing order. It has surpassed the U.S. in economic metrics like GDP (PPP) and made significant investments in infrastructure and STEM fields. Its military is developing asymmetric capabilities challenging American dominance in the Pacific, while economic statecraft through initiatives like the One Belt One Road project expands its influence, shifting global power dynamics towards Beijing.

Thucydides's analysis of the Peloponnesian War offers insights into power dynamics. The rise of Athens and the fear it caused in Sparta made war seem inevitable. Sparta, a conservative military state, clashed with innovative, democratic Athens. Athens's demand for status and Sparta's insecurity created a cycle of tension, accelerating conflict despite peace treaties. Interests, fear, and honor were primary drivers, with human emotions often leading to misperception and exaggerated dangers.

A historical survey reveals that power transitions often follow a pattern where a rising power challenges a ruling one. Twelve out of sixteen such cases over five centuries resulted in war. This involves a rising power syndrome, where the ascending state seeks greater respect, and a ruling power syndrome, marked by insecurity and fear of decline. These psychological states escalate demands and defensive reactions, making peaceful transitions challenging and leading to conflict, as seen in the Japan-U.S. rivalry.

At the turn of the 20th century, Germany’s rapid naval buildup challenged British maritime supremacy, a foundation of its global empire. Britain's policy was to oppose any dominant European power. The Crowe Memorandum emphasized German capabilities over intentions. This triggered a naval arms race, with Germany, under Kaiser Wilhelm II, seeking global status. This structural competition created permanent tension, where minor crises could escalate into a global catastrophe, culminating in World War I.

The rise of the United States, led by Theodore Roosevelt, showcased a muscular vision of American greatness. Roosevelt championed expanding U.S. influence, believing only nations willing to fight maintain sovereignty. He transformed the Monroe Doctrine into an operational reality, using military force to expel European powers and secure American interests. His actions, like supporting the Panamanian revolution and asserting claims in Alaska, demonstrated an assertive diplomacy focused on national security and global destiny.

Xi Jinping’s leadership is dedicated to restoring China’s historical greatness, encapsulated in the China Dream: a rich, powerful, and respected nation. Shaped by the Cultural Revolution, Xi aims for China to be the predominant power in Asia, regaining control over territories like Taiwan and Hong Kong. Chinese foreign policy, influenced by its Middle Kingdom worldview, expects deference from neighboring states, viewing Western dominance as a historical anomaly to be corrected.

The US-China rivalry is intensified by profound cultural and philosophical differences. The U.S. prioritizes individual freedom and democracy, while China values social hierarchy and strong central government. Both possess exceptionalism: American missionary zeal contrasts with China's view as a harmonious, hierarchical center. Strategically, Americans are problem-solvers, while Chinese leaders think in centuries, cultivating situational momentum (shi) and prioritizing psychological victory through patient accumulation of advantage.

Despite both nations wishing to avoid war, unforeseen events can lead to conflict. Historical precedents like the Korean War show China's willingness to launch preemptive strikes. Modern technology, including cyber warfare and antisatellite weapons, acts as an accelerant, creating "use-it-or-lose-it" dynamics. War games suggest scenarios like naval collisions, Taiwanese independence, or Senkaku Islands disputes could trigger mutual defense treaties, rapidly escalating minor incidents into full-scale confrontations.

Escaping Thucydidean rivalries is possible through diplomatic ingenuity. The rivalry between Spain and Portugal was resolved by papal arbitration and the Treaty of Tordesillas, establishing spheres of influence. Germany's postwar rise demonstrated successful integration into institutions like the EU and NATO. The transition of global leadership from Britain to the U.S. involved pragmatic accommodation. The Cold War also showed that even adversaries can manage rivalry through mutual assured destruction and indirect competition.

The U.S. and China face shared global mega-threats that necessitate cooperation, analogous to an alien invasion. These include nuclear catastrophe, nuclear anarchy, global terrorism, and climate change. Given mutual assured destruction, avoiding war is paramount. Both must manage nuclear proliferation risks, prevent biological threats, and cooperate on climate change—a slow-motion disaster requiring international agreements. Continued economic integration and a global elite also incentivize stability.

The author rejects the notion of inescapable fate, asserting that human choices determine outcomes. Savvy statesmanship, as seen in the Cuban Missile Crisis, can avert war by avoiding confrontations that force adversaries into humiliating retreats or total conflict. Four strategic ideas are proposed: clarifying vital U.S. interests, understanding China’s core interests, restoring serious grand strategy, and prioritizing internal governance failures as the foundation of national security.